-
Website
http://www.zacharybass.com -
Original page
http://www.zacharybass.com/2008/12/apple-has-an-inside-day-not-a-good-thing.html -
Subscribe
All Comments -
Community
-
-
Top Commenters
-
Popular Threads
All Comments
Fool. Any idiot can get their investment advice from the internet.
h t t p://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Harami.htm
The fact that you are deliberately trying to mislead thousands of people with your weblog I find despicable and disgusting.
And it is quite obvious that you have neither the skill or experience to level such charges against my analysis. Just because it doesn't agree with your jaded view, does mean that it's not correct.
As it stands now, I have warned you too many times, and I'm going to moderate your comments. If they start improving, I'll let them through, but up to this point, you haven't provided any value to this blog, you've simply been an annoyance.
I still believe we rally in Jan leading up to the 20th. After that we probably peak and pullback.
Apple is absorbing the news that Jobs might be much less active in the company. That's the main reason it's weak right now. Yes, we had stories about possible weakness in retail but Apple of all companies is very strong. The stores are packed.
Dropping MacWorld is a major disappointment. The only reason to do it is because Steve won't be around. It's such a cheap and exciting experience for the money. The stock is factoring in a transition and we may get news of that in a month etc.
I'm all cash for now and looking for a rally and sharp spike up in the S&P very soon. I think we get to about 960-980 by late Jan. That's what I'm "looking for" right now.
I like your blog and read it regularly. However, I've noticed over time that you're rarely right. Have you noticed that too?
I'm sure you know more than I do, and perhaps you keep your best stuff for yourself, but it's nevertheless true that you're wrong far more often than you're right. And when you are right it's often not for the reasons you previously stated. It's usually an occurrence of events that had nothing to do with your stated theory.
I know it's terrible to just leave a negative comment with nothing constructive. However, seeing as you have thousands of readers and having some experience with blogging myself, I'm sure you know that the people who come to piss on you are just as valuable as the ones who agree with you. I mean, hits are hits. As such, I'm very sure you don't let it get to you.
I'll keep reading-- mostly 'cuz you link bait with APPL and I read any scrap I can find on 'em-- so keep up the typing.
BTW, if the market is always right how do you explain the current state of affairs? I mean, it's VERY safe to say the market did not see the current situation coming, but rather reacted to it once it was upon us.
Moreover, there was NO WAY the market was looking forward 3-6 months back in May, June,July, to Nov. NO WAY AT ALL. You're just plain wrong about that. Maybe you can show me some fancy charts that show that back in June the market saw this whole mess coming, but I doubt it. Sure there were some canaries in this coal mine, but "the market"? No. You included.
In May you were absolutely NOT saying "come Nov. we'll see huge lows, major banks failing, 500,000 jobs lost in a month, the Dow off 40% and Apple at 85." You were NOT saying that.
I know 'cuz I read your blog.
Doing Technical Analysis is like doing what a weatherman does. If you've noticed, a weatherman is never 100% correct either. It's like a weatherman, because you take the best information available, apply well known models, patterns and experience and you come up with a prediction that is predicated on probability. So it's not a matter of being 100% right or 100% wrong, it's a matter of degree. Just as in the weather, there are too many factors that influence the markets to predict with 100% accuracy, but it is possible to identify trends and probable outcomes to a fair degree of accuracy. Enough at least to make intelligent investment decisions.
As far as the market always being right and looking forward 3 to 6 months; If you were to look back in early september, I posted a series of articles warning that we were headed for a crash. One of them was entitled "Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put on Your Crash Helmets." At that time the market was giving clear signals that things were falling apart. Just as I suspect some time in mid to late 2009 the market will start to rally out of this bear, yet the economy probably won't turn for several months afterwards. One other big prediction that was spot on, was when I called an end to this bear rally back on Dec 11th. Other than that, most of the day to day stuff is like a weather vane, although I have to take exception, because I believe I've been better than 80% correct the past several months. If you could site specific examples, then I will address that.
And when I say that the market is always right, I'll have to admit that it's a form of rhetorical speech. But the fact of the matter is that the pricing of equities reflects supply and demand, as well as the sentiment of the mob of investors that make up the market. If an equity like AAPL falls to ridiculous lows, even though the fundamentals don't justify it, that's the supply demand equation at work. There's simply not enough buyers willing to pay the price, so that's why the price is what it is. Just like buying a house. You may think your house is worth $650K, but if no one buys it until you drop the price to $600K, then you've found what your house is really worth, regardless of the improvements you put into it.