DISQUS

Marcos · 1 year ago

You present a very reasonable assessment of the prospects. I appreciate your work product and writing style. The AAPL investors have been clobbered by more than Wall Street, however. They have been clobbered by Apple, repeatedly with their foolish and arrogantly transparent unreasonably low guidance. Furthermore, the rumors about Jobs' health have never yet been dispelled, and he could have helped investors immensely by doing so. Lastly, Apple executive management can turn the downside upside down to upside if they would take a few bucks and buy their own stock. Jobs could buy a million shares, Cook and Oppenheimer several hundred thousand and the company itself could buy, say $5 billion of its own stock, announce it all and show their support for investors. Will they do it? Nooooo. They will hoard cash for something fatefully untold in a light year's time away.

Thom · 1 year ago

I have to agree a lot with Marcos. Apple does not treat itself as a publicly traded company. This is great for the Consumer and for their products but it makes it VERY difficult to be an Investor. Apple does have a pretty dismal history of insider buying though it also doesn't have massive insider selling either.

I also believe one big anchor around this stock's neck is the health question. While I believe Steve is fine, I don't KNOW that he's fine and this is the kind of stuff Institutions don't like. As a company, Apple's future is great but as a stock it's in limbo. If Apple breaks the trend this week and rises above it all I'll be pleasantly shocked.

Thom · 1 year ago

And looking at the Oil chart zack posted, the next level of support will be the 122 level to test the June lows. Cross your fingers and hope the weather holds this Summer.

XamaX · 1 year ago

Zack, thanks for the excellent articles.

Given the probable sell on the news scenario and given that 165 was a support for AAPL, what do you figure is the next support down the line? Can you say something about that?
Thanks a bunch
Signs - a nervous investor

Zach Bass · 1 year ago

I don't believe we're going lower from here. There's strong price support in the 164-165 range and the 200-day moving average at 164.77. Plus there was no real conviction to the downside on Friday. If we lost the 200-day, our next level of support is gap support at 160.

philipp Schröder · 1 year ago

100% agree oil down, rally about to start, apple will lead

Thom · 1 year ago

In April we tested 160 a couple of times successfully and then after that it looks like 145. 165 has been a major rally point for the latter part of this year, lets hope it stays that way.

XamaX · 1 year ago

I believe (knock on wood) it's going to go down further on Monday before the ER, it'll be the sell-on-the-news syndrome (how stupid is that rule?).

On Tuesday the market will struggle to understand the reality of Apple but the infested Media will try to knock it down big way, all pointing to whatever less positive aspect they found or something that someone made up, a rumor even.

I don't know - since Apple was 199 someone must have gotten worried, probably on account of industry intelligence (aka secrets robbed) stating that Apple was coming out with a revolutionary major platform that would shake the entire computer industry and put installed interests at peril.

So AAPL started to be attacked and just about ANY piece of news - which with Apple tend to be all good - became opportunity for negative media commentary and another AAPL plunge or at least smaller than natural gains only to drop them a couple of days forward.

- The wolf under the sheep skin / the Spin Meisters -
The latest strategy seems to be to write an awful lot of concerns and worries about the company, how the market is in recession and expensive goods are going to take a hit, etc. and then to still provide big numbers like Shaw Wu's target of $200. I don't find it huge - to be true AAPL should by now be @ ~ $250, starting its climb to $300 - but it is huge for a document that is full of negative spins and cautionary remarks. Sorry, I didn't read the document myself but I grasped that much.

That will be the last strategy - seeing that Apple's numbers are irrefutable, "they" will try to fill the media up with writings that naturally display Apple's big numbers and give them negative spin in a hipnotizing trance that will simply convey the message that Apple's numbers are huge still the outlook is negative or in sum that white is black and black is white.

I think we will arrive at the end of the year thinking that 2008 was a year to be forgotten. But if only there would be the promise that 2009 would be better...

Mind you, this is for Apple only - how come one trick pony RIMM - and that's one with a really shaky future! - does not behave similarly and, on the contrary, tiny things makes the stock jump? Just an example.

berbabed · 1 year ago

Zach-nice post...
its about time someone is correlating the oil -financial positives...Instead of the media's perpetual chicken little mode!
Thanks for the timely divergenge from straight APPL news.We need it.