DISQUS

yet another steve · 1 year ago

I have a different (decidedly less technical or professional) take. A company this well positioned (and it is) in a down market is an opportunity to buy low with impunity when it pulls back. The question is how low, and admittedly, I've been floundering on that. But the best opportunity for profit is when the stock and the company are headed in opposite directions, all the better if the reason for the divergence is external to the company. Buy lower, buy slowly.

The market is typically full of weak companies going down and strong companies going up. Weak company going up (especially if you're already long so you don't have the risks of shorting) and strong company going down are much easier calls.

158 is a great price if you got in at 120.. or 130 or even 140... which you could have done with patience just months ago.

Ironically, in 1987, the day after the crash, the stock I was dying to buy was a very oversold AAPL (which was turning around at the time as a company--though NOTHING that can compare to its position today).

Keep some powder dry, and if the market crashes, what better stock to buy at fire sale prices?

XamaX · 1 year ago

You don't really get it do you? You talk about profit and buying low yet you state "I've been floundering on that". Right. When has it hit the bottom, is the million dollar question! Nobody knows. And nobody knows how low a crash can go. So all this rambling about is really useless to say the least.

XamaX · 1 year ago

I see so many people stating that LONG is the way to go, it's like they're in denial OR they don't understand that a stock price is relative to what somebody is willing to pay and another somebody is willing to sell for - it might be related to the company's fundamentals but at the end of the day, literally, it is what the market offers for it.

And this market is offering less and less comparatively to what the AAPL stock is worth and its potential.

The constant low volumes demonstrate that people are pulling out of the market and going elsewhere presumably to where it's safer whether it's Gold, Oil or plain cash.

Mind you, if the dollar crashes due to a war over oil like Iran or something, having a stack of USD at the "ailing" Bank could be worth zilch.

In sum, AAPL has indeed been climbing up steadily but while doing it against the tide it's been ending up time and time again in the similar or lower absolute position.

If the market crashes - and it only takes a scare - AAPL will go down as all the other stocks no matter how amazing this company may be, that is easy to see. And it is amazing.

And its potential is to be a company double or triple its current size in a couple of years time.

So I believe the warning goes mainly for AAPL LONGs that have an unfailing faith in the company and state they will stay with it no matter what. It is for the people who say that when the price goes down, it's time to buy. It is for people who tell stories about how since the year 200x they have always add AAPL positions to their portfolio.

The warning is: please don't be in denial, please wise up, please be on alert.

And by the way - the Jan-Feb "market correction" in which AAPL dropped from 199 to 117 - was it not a mini-crash? Was it not a warning for something bigger that *may* be coming ahead?!