Talking to a dear friend of mine at GFI. He's an exotic swap rate trader - basically places bets for major financial institutions on the direction of the yield curve between different benchmarks like the 3-month Libor v. 10 T-bill. He handles billions of $ a day and sees the underlying health of the global economy. He says is getting worse and worse every day and feels bad for the equities market. He doesn't see recovery for some time.
Bryan
· 1 year ago
I think the market got word of MER selling more stock and decided to unload all day. That and the bank news but mostly MER
taojones
· 1 year ago
Zach I'm getting whiplash here! your going from strong bullish signals to hell in a hand-basket over a weekend. I think we need to re consider the time frames of your tea leave reading. i'm not finding anything particularly useful in your analysis lately.
Zach Bass
· 1 year ago
I know, I feel the same way! I personally feel like I'm caught in the froth of a crashing wave. These wild swings are characteristic of a down market at transition. The best I can do in these situations is provide what I see in multiple time frames. If you look back at my analysis in the past few posts you'll see that I refer to the weekly, daily and 60 minute time frames and how they are influencing one another.
For example, yesterday's post I mentioned that the daily charts looked bullish, yet the 60 minute charts were bearish to indeterminate. When you have conflicting signals like this, all you can do is provide your best guess on both sides of the equation.
In past posts I have referred to the weekly timeframes as being much more favorable. Now some might conclude that the higher order charts (larger time frame like the weeklies) might have more influence over the lower order charts. And while this is true in a general case, it is not so true during periods of transition. It is typically the opposite, where the 60 minute charts lead the way, and they change with the direction of the wind.
So, I apologize that my analysis has been frothy, and I wish there was a better answer, but there isn't. This is why during this period I have recommended to stay on the sidelines. It is the best advice I can give, and the best way to preserve your capital until there are better conditions from which to read market sentiment.
All Comments
For example, yesterday's post I mentioned that the daily charts looked bullish, yet the 60 minute charts were bearish to indeterminate. When you have conflicting signals like this, all you can do is provide your best guess on both sides of the equation.
In past posts I have referred to the weekly timeframes as being much more favorable. Now some might conclude that the higher order charts (larger time frame like the weeklies) might have more influence over the lower order charts. And while this is true in a general case, it is not so true during periods of transition. It is typically the opposite, where the 60 minute charts lead the way, and they change with the direction of the wind.
So, I apologize that my analysis has been frothy, and I wish there was a better answer, but there isn't. This is why during this period I have recommended to stay on the sidelines. It is the best advice I can give, and the best way to preserve your capital until there are better conditions from which to read market sentiment.