DISQUS

Investor in the Wilderness: Apple Investors this Market Blows…

  • Ed · 1 year ago
    why did you change the stop to 169 and say that trade s from last week? last week you had the stop at $170. i knew you changed things as you went along.

    what a fraud
  • Zach Bass · 1 year ago
    I changed the stop to account for the increased volatility. Last week when I first suggested the trade, the indices had made clean breakouts from the wedge patterns that they were in. Then that breakout was essentially erased and we fell back into the wedge. So, I'm giving the trade more room, plus I'm suggesting other trade strategies that can be used separately or in conjunction with this trade to use the volatility to our advantage.
  • Shmid · 1 year ago
    While it is true that there has been a lot of volatilty in the markets, thatvis not true for AAPL. The implied volatilty is at about 37, which is near YTD lows; so prices are "lower" for option contracts right now. I expect the volatility to increase with a pending deal with China and possible product refresh in September so now would be a good time to buy some oct calls where the premium should increase significantly as volatility grows and you are also limited to the downside because implied volitioity is unlikely to go much lower, so even if stock price goes lower a bit the premium will not lose much value.
  • Zach Bass · 1 year ago
    Well, that's right. I was referring to market volatility and the relative change in volatility that we have seen last week and can expect as the big boys come back on line next week. We also have Gustav and Hanna to contend with, possibly a new Nano introduction, and greater volume, I expect volatility to increase and therefore increase the value of options.
  • Anon · 1 year ago
    You've got your spread backwards. If you execute a Bear Put Spread at current prices and it closes below 160 you will get the returns you posted here. Not a Bull Put Spread. A Bull Put Spread will cost you $345 and return $155.
  • Zach Bass · 1 year ago
    Yes, that was a dumb ass mistake that one makes on a Sunday morning, before having his coffee. I have fixed the figures and included a spread sheet from which I performed the calculation. Thanks.