Investor in the Wilderness - Latest Comments in Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

yet another steve — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 01:05:56 -0000

I disagree with the link to the "Let's Rock" event. Apples businesses have been firing on all cylinders and they did just what they should with the ipod line.

The problem is that the current business fundamentals don't matter.

The macro technical environment dwarfs all.

If Apple continues to outperform the overall economy (likely as its market share trends are pretty solid), then we'll all be presented with a fantasic buying opportunity.

Meanwhile this is just a dramatic reminder that you are trading with other investors... not with the company's customers. A market trend in the exact opposite direction as a company trend can produce a tremendous buying opportunity. Hopefully you'll be able to tell us when we're there.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Claudio Lizzola — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:16:17 -0000

Zach,
Are you sure that Apple has agreed with the financial community to post the revenue from iPhone on a 24 month basis? And if yes, what is the rationale now since they are not getting anymore monthly installments from ATT?
Other question: if Apple posts the revenue from iPhone spreaded over 24 months, how do they pay taxes? Do they defer them accordingly or do they pay them right away? In the first case they would probably break the law, in the second case they do inflict double damage to their shareholder (like me) by making the company paying taxes on income that is not bringing any timely advantage to its value.
The other thing I don't understand is how this reporting situation is a competitive advantage.
I really think that you should represent on our behalf to Apple's Investor Relations the need that ALL REVENUES are counted and posted as they happen. I also think it may not be not frivolous to sue Apple if they don't.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Zach Bass — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 20:51:56 -0000

Claudio, I'm not putting any extra effort or trying to manipulate or justify my positions by painting a bleak picture. I'm simply providing analysis of the near-term as I see it.

Reporting iPhone revenue does provide a degree of instability, so I agree with your stance. But that's a metric that Apple has established with analysts and the investment community. I also think they use the reporting as a competitive advantage.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Zach Bass — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 20:41:57 -0000

Apple is strongly identified with the smartphone market because of the iPhone, and of course RIMM is as well. They tend to move together, in terms of price movement, because their markets and suppliers overlap.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Claudio Lizzola — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 19:55:55 -0000

Zach,
You are listing a number of undenyable facts concerning your charts and the technical analysis you draw from them. You forgot to add one fact: that technical analysis is by no means an undisputed indication of market direction. In fact, a month ago, using your same technical analysis principles, you proclaimed that the bear market was over.
So what you say has actually no value other than advising that the bear situation suggests prudence. Which, by the way, is not a big discovery in these difficult times.
I know you are a believer in Apple future but, after you started to send panic signals because of your unfortunate bad experience with the first iPhones you had (panic signals that nobody else shared), you are putting all your efforts to make the AAPL situation even worse.
As a member of the Investor in the Wilderness I recently asked you to represent to Apple the need to stop their stance of not declaring the income from the iPhone. If they stopped, it will go on a long way to a better future for AAPL shares to the benefit of all investors.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Ron Mitchell — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 18:15:18 -0000

With Russia, India, and soon China now in the iPod mix, Piper Jaffrey's target of 250 is still in play. Apple is also now in more than 900 Best Buys in the country. Q1 will be APPL's biggest ever. AAPL is NOT the same as the financial stocks, and you are looking at them that way. The stock starts going up with Q4 earnings announcement in October.

And please don't help out the hedgie manipulators ... unless you're also in bed with them.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

Steve — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 17:04:09 -0000

Where's your disclosure that you're SHORT AAPL Zach? I'm beginning to think you're just another market manipulator who's goal is nothing more than to fatten his own wallet.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

lrd — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 17:01:21 -0000

Zach-

Since the introdcution of the iPhone, I've notced a strange trend between RIM and Apple stock. They tend to go up and down together and many times by the same amount. Could you explain this to me? Or is it sheer luck? It happend too many times to be sheer luck in my opinion.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

macfan — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 17:01:11 -0000

I wonder if we were to examinaeall of Zach's trade strategies and then took into consideration the influence he tries to exert here, if we'd have a case. I will popose it to Stock Watch and the SEC.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

hairy — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 16:54:55 -0000

This is such crap!

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

marcos — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:43:14 -0000

Zach, the market is indeed sick. I am not going to commit capital at this stage to try to recover from the huge beating it has given me. I need to see it hit a lower level, much lower and I think its coming to that. Apple has plenty of good news on its side but it is a long term play for now and nothing will lift it in the short term. Money acts rationally and money will stay back and preserve its options for a better time, which will come---much later on. There is still too much bad news to come out of Wall St. in these next two quarters. The big money has pretty much written off the year and will undoubtedly dump out of positions beginning in about 1 day.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

techinvestor — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:19:14 -0000

Personally, I'm not ready to panic yet as your article seems to suggest. Rarely is September NOT the worse month of the year for the stock market. As for tech stocks if you look at historical trends, particularly for the semiconductor indexes, you will note that there is almost always a pullback that hits bottom near late September which is then followed by a strong year end rally that generally starts within the first two weeks of October.

For this year we also have the political influences of the upcoming election. You can bet that the GOP is not going to just stand by and do nothing for the next 50 days. In line with this I wouldn't be surprised if the Feds hit us with some unexpected positive actions for interest rates, perhaps even this coming Tuesday. Who knows, even the outcome of the Lehman situation could be the catalyst to jump start this market.

As for the concerns of the overall economy, since the doom and gloom has been running ahead of reality it wouldn't take much good news to turn sentiment positive again. As you surely know, there is a ton of money on the sidelines just waiting for the right market timing/buying opportunities. Surely Apple will be recognized as one of these buying opportunities. Let's face it, you would have to be blind not to see that the company has a very bright future.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

MRP — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:40:03 -0000

The break of the 5yr. uptrend line is of particular concern to me. In the past, when we have briefly dipped below this line, AAPL has shot right back up with conviction. We are seeing a different scenario presently as AAPL remains in a steep downtrend that points directly to strong (very crucial) support at $145.

I am an AAPL Bull - but a market Bear. For me, the question is can the two outlooks co-exist.
My observations are as follows: I believe the current administration has trapped itself between the ideal of no more government intervention and the reality of a financial crisis so potentially devastating as to unravel the entire U.S. banking system. If the government backstops a Lehman buyout - on any level - to stop the bleeding that would ensue on Monday, it is only a temporary salve. More will tumble. At some point, and IMHO, very soon, a major U.S. financial institution will go under without a life preserver. And the dominoes will fall. Also my opinion: while the fear of these events has been anticipated by the market for months, the real, actual, unraveling will spark a panic in global markets. The VIX will reflect the volatility spike and the indices will plunge below the recent lows. All my opinion, as I stated. But I feel strongly that the markets will continue to unravel as the tangible implosion of financial institutions occurs.

The only thing that could interrupt AAPL's stellar climb and rock- solid fundamentals is a market-wide meltdown. Such a melt-down may very well happen. It is tragic timing for such a game-changing, forward-thinking company at the start of its remarkable global ascent.

If we do manage a LEH sale, we should get a bounce. Maybe even back up to 1300 on the S&P. But it can't last, IMHO. There are too many mark-downs yet to hit the books, and an accounting system that is deleterious and downright unfair to financial institutions operating in the current environment - inevitably leading to a collapse of any number of big name firms. So even if LEH survives by the skin of its teeth - there are 5-10 others waiting in the wings to fall on their face.

While I am happy to drink the kool-aid, and believe 100% that Apple's fundamentals are stronger than they have ever been - the unfortunate reality is that the market is telling us something - and we need to listen.

Risk management is key.

Re: Apple Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown

cabrach — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:12:28 -0000

I believe your analysis is unduly pessimistic. Apple is an international company which is just starting to gather steam in markets such as India, China, Russia and Japan. I understand the US market is tanking and this will drag everything down, but if investors are looking for any port in this storm Apple is as good as any.