Investor in the Wilderness - Latest Comments in Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Jim — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 19:48:43 -0000

I watched the stock action today...July 18th on 5 minute candles...everytime the S&P 500 made a move...Apple reflected it...any review of the stock shows this however...I also included On Balance Volume and Accumulation/Distribution...the former was more conclusive but what I saw...was everytime the price hit 166.80...a huge sell would occur without exception...this would drive the price down and the buy would begin reducing the negative volume...and when it reached approximately the same value it would do it again...and then most amazing and what lends credence to the other article on this site concerning "Max Pain" and option pinning...the price went right down to 165 right at the bell...It dropped at the end of the :50 bar and then immediately dropped at :55 it was amazing to watch...frustrating because had I known the action was due to the option pinning I would have waited to purchase today...

Anyway...there is someone either making sure their option investment paid off...pick your investment bank/hedge fund...but I watch this happen day after day...including outlying buys and sells to leverage the price action...I even saw a closing price for Apple yesterday at 8:01PM that was significantly lower than the close price of the last legal bar...

Anyway...the question is not if but who...

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Conspiracy Theodoro — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:37:03 -0000

Because Big Money know SJ is going to die soon. How does Big Money know? Because they are having him killed. SJ is disrupting too many industries, and won't play ball with government agencies to provide back doors into private lives. Threat to the Big Brother status quo.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Elizabeth Kagan — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 10:18:04 -0000

I'll tell you what i think (and, perhaps, know) If one reads the Apple message board, there are the SAME group of people shorting" apple stock EVERY SINGLE DAY! Now, I don't know whether or not it is being done legally, but in my estimation, for what it is worth, THAT is what is holding Apple back from any kind of good run-up. THAT is what is holding back any type of run-up in apple's stock,., At least that is MY opinion, for whatever it is worth and it makes me sick!

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

kylelong100 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:34:49 -0000

i really like win's explanation why aapl did not go up as much today: because of lack of short covering. I did cover my rimm short today. fortunately at 104. Later i shorted it again at 109. So, if your theory is correct, rimm likely will drop in price tomorrow and aapl will not drop as much. I hope you are right.

i found the barron's article to be an important topic. It is difficult to predict what apple will guide for september, it makes more since why the stock has not gone up with 1 million iphone sold. the iphone revenue will be spread over 2 years apparently.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

win — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:08:28 -0000

Lots of shorts getting squeezed today -- in RIMM, BIDU etc. GOOG reports tomorrow. AAPL just didn't have any shorts. Who would have the balls to short AAPL through the launch of I Phone 3G? Stock will consolidate tomorrow. Friday depends upon GOOG earnings.

Also, despite all the FUD, Barron's still has cred. Remember when they pushed AAPL down ahead of 3 G by posting an article saying that "trustworthy sources" had revealed that Apple didn't have enough I Phones? Yesterday, they put out another rumor saying that AAPL was going to guide down. Very smart rumors - AAPL did guide down a quarter ago (and look what happened), so it does foster fear. I don't know why Barron's is spreading these rumors but if they are wrong about this one (and I think they are) I will be really disappointed.

Sad for me, I made a ST bet on a jump today (July calls). Oh well.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Bob — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:36:10 -0000

Here it is:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/0...

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Bob — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 17:31:42 -0000

I saw an article that ran some numbers and suggested AAPL could guide conservatively.
Can't find it right now, but if I come across it I'll post it. Perhaps that explains it?

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Trex — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:48:11 -0000

options expiration on friday. Total of 175,000 contracts from 170 to 180?

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

ted — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:01:10 -0000

Good article, but what exactly do you mean? What "forces" are there that hold this down? Is this a mysterious wall street issue that everyone just sort of knows about? Can you write more definitively about this?

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:52:30 -0000

I agree, my question was more of a general question. I'm holding very lightly into earnings and plan to take advantage of any temporary weakness that may occur due to mis-reading the tea leaves.

However, if oil falls tomorrow all bets are off and I feel ALL players will benefit (except the oil guys that is).

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

kylelong100 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:20:55 -0000

in terms of competition, they are fall behind at this point in terms of iphone. but verizon is adding more subsidies to phone makers to compete with ATT. I have no doubt iphone is far more better in software, but investors do not get too passionate and will wait for pure earnings and profit margins numbers before considering long lines outthere waiting.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

kylelong100 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:17:07 -0000

I am long on aapl and short on rimm. but for the short term, with earnings coming up, it is safer to buy more after earnings. Macbook air, ipods, iphones have all cut prices. It is a good way to gain market share but investors may not like that at this point. I think down the future, when market shares really go grow, then it is safer to add shares of aapl.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Adam — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 14:11:58 -0000

I am also disturbed by this, but compare AAPL to HPQ -- in lockstep.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:45:33 -0000

Tranqillo YEV, tranqillo. He's expresing his concerns, not bashing. Apple's Back-To-School program is a pretty deep discount for the entire iPod line-up. The 3G will be a part of Apple's FLS but the Market can overreact.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Thom — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:41:08 -0000

Do you think then that this is a good entry point? If the Institutionals are keeping the price down for earnings is this foreshadowing an upside surprise (more so than the whisper number of $1.12) or setting us up for a fall?

Don't for get that Rimm trades 18mil per day usually so it's actually having heavy volume, while Apple trades 31-32mil so today's volume is anemic.

I really chalk this up to Margin concerns, Intel is only up +- 1% today.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

Yev — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:40:19 -0000

Kylelong, can you show me where Apple is decreasing its prices? If you are talking about the iPhone, ATT is subsidizing the device and cost to Apple to build 3G iPhone is less then it was for the original iPhone.

What exact competition are you talking about at this point? There are lines out the door in all countries, where are the lines for these so called competitors.

Everything you are saying is unfounded and baseless FUD. Back it up !!!

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

kylelong100 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:24:43 -0000

there could be some other reasons for this. the big money maybe thinking that the profit margins for aapl is declining. The iphone will not be added to the coming quarter earnings. Apple generally does not need to decrease prices for its products but it is clearly doing that for all sectors of its business, especially for ipods and iphone. Iphone is understandable since there is so much competition and competition is increasing. I still think iphone will be a major winner in the future but in the short term, with the earnings and the uncertainty of the bear market, we may have to wait till after earnings to think about buying.

Re: Apple Price Manipulation, but Who and Why?

marketsurfer99 — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:19:26 -0000

it's very frustrating and makes trading AAPL difficult.