DISQUS

Investor in the Wilderness: The Bear Rally is Over Part 2

  • Bryan · 1 year ago
    We'll see how it plays out.

    1. We have an ascending triangle which is bullish.
    2. We might have a double top at 918 - not good.
    3. Auto bailout might happen tomorrow.
    4. Oversold today for no good reason. GE what if's and Auto BK talk. Looks to be funding now???
    5. Still above the 20 day and 875.
    6. Friday's have been good lately.
    7. Financials have been solid.
    8. Market has ignored major bad news lately so a little pullback doesn't mean that much yet.
  • Bryan · 1 year ago
    I forgot to mention - futures are up.

    Also, Oracle and Rimm did pretty well. Keeping current estimates for the Q.
  • Zach Bass · 1 year ago
    Actually futures are down. The S&P is at -6.90, the nasdaq is -8.75 and the dow is at -59.00.

    Also, an ascending wedge in this context is a bearish reversal pattern. We lost the 50s with a vengeance, and Friday is OE day with Max Pain well below the current level.
  • Bryan · 1 year ago
    You need to look at fair value on the futures. As of right now they are positive. Don't know about the morning.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

    We'll see if the market gives up the rally or if this was just a sell-off on Fed news but that market still wants to go higher. I don't expect a retest of the lows until after earnings in Feb at the earliest right now.

    ---
    Everyday, CNNfn calls trading desks that calculate this figure after the market closes. If they say, for example, that fair value is "plus 10," the futures contract needs to be 10 points above the cash index's close the previous day to be at its fair value relationship to cash. S&P futures trade nearly 24 hours a day. So if, before the stock market opens, futures are trading above their fair value relationship to where the S&P closed the previous day, stocks are likely to open higher.

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    DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC made significant progress late Thursday on a deal to secure emergency loans as part of a U.S. government aid package, people familiar with the talks said.

    The package would demand sweeping restructuring at the troubled automakers in exchange for bridge loans to carry GM and Chrysler for several months, according to the sources.

    Emergency federal loans for the two companies could be announced by the government as early as Friday, according to the sources who were not authorized to discuss the negotiations.

    Representatives of the two automakers and the U.S. government continued talks late into the evening on Thursday, people familiar with the closed-door discussions said.
  • Bryan · 1 year ago
    I wonder if the market is going to move up daily next week with the holiday's here.

    During Thanksgiving week it moved up 800 points after tanking prior.

    Something I'll be looking at.

    AAPL is dead. I'm surprised it didn't move up on RIMM??

    It amazes me that the market can have several days of nothing but positive movements and then - like someone turned on a switch or told a group of funds - that they can sell now or something.

    Is Today sell the news? I know I did. What will next week bring. It's a traders market.
  • tomtom · 1 year ago
    they're coming to get you Zaccccccccccccccccccccccch

    The karma police never sleep SEC will be waking too, think you have power? Enjoy your 15 minutes . You are arrogant stupid and full of yourself.
  • marcos · 1 year ago
    Thanks for the benefit of your technical insight. Even without the ability to fully understand the details, I go on my gut feeling and that hasn't changed. Reading the lines (not between them) there is so much really bad news on employment globally, and one in ten homes either in default or foreclosure, that its hard to imagine any other scenario than 'depression'. Sadly, we are in it already. The CMBS devastation has yet to befall the market, and that will portend trillions of dollars of losses to banks, insurance companies, investment bankers and individual investors. There are no bailout moneys left for any of us. Its going to get much much worse. AAPL at low 70's sooner than later.
  • Charels · 1 year ago
    Best post so far Zach. I think that this is basically the crux of it. You have to stop trading based on what you "feel" about the company and go with just the technicals. There is no room for emotion or loyalty here.