In this case the fundamentals of the market in general will grease the skids for the technicals. The earnings season will be grim. The only question is how much a lift will the market get from the inauguration? I suspect none.
basta
· 11 months ago
Jezus. All your message are so negative !!! And you keep on coming with the same messages over and over every day almost. It becomes so predictable !!!
I think your wife or a relative has some puts !?
chaunceyherbie
· 11 months ago
Zach, have enjoyed your regular posts. You've made some excellent points about AAPL, but the price and volume are not clearly bearish. Last week's move down was selling into a price area from the week of 12/01. Last week's volume was 159M versus volume of 198M--20% less volume. This decreasing force in volume has bullish implications, i.e. if they can't sell it off with suffcient force, they'll bid it back up for another try higher. I am showing a point and figure potential support level at 85.40. The 8% weekly range you mentioned is actually less than average. The weekly average true range is 13.63 points! It currently has support of the 10 and 20 SMA. AAPL is extremely volatile and is an excellent issue to trade in both directions. We have differing views of the broader market. Here is my analysis of $spx: CURRENT BIAS: GOING LONG
For more information on $SPX I have posted two charts and a full assessment: one with 2Sweeties $SDX Weekly Going Long Retracement Levels and the PnF potential support and resistance areas, both major and hourly. Scroll to the second chart down to view the hourly PnF chart. Go to: http://www.flickr.com/photos/8258970@N03/ Click on the chart, then click on the zoom magnifer labeled All Sizes above the chart.
How did we do last week on the $SPX with my going short bias information and chart, using 2SW’s Weekly Going Short RL’s, the PnF potential Major Support/Resistance levels and 60 min potential PnF Support/Resistance levels and the SMAs?
If you scaled in (as I did at various levels) at 2SW’s 929 level, or the 60 min PnF levels of 944, 937 or 930 and scaled out between the Major PnF Support/Resistance level of 898 and the 50 SMA of 888.75, then you made some decent cash on the pullback. I personally got out at the 900 area, apparently a little early. So far it has had a selling reversal of 6 boxes on the 60 minute PnF and as I opined last week based on the overbought condition, I thought the selling reversal would exceed 3 boxes, as the average intermediate term selling reversal has averaged 7.75 boxes. On Friday I went long ¼ position in the 892 area and will scale in as we go lower as my bias is currently going long. 2SW’s highest odds is at 879.29 which is also basically at the 60 min PnF level of 878. Of note below is the PnF 60 minute level of 859, just above the short term bottom of 12/22 and the double bottom of 12/29 at 857.07.
Please note that I use + or - .005 on Major PnF Potential Support/Resistance levels and + or - .0015 on the 60 minute. My approach is to consider those levels as being painted with a brush rather than drawn with a fine pencil. 2SW’s advice for patience last week was spot on. Thanks. I am using only 2SWs highest odds, Major PnF potential Support/Resistance levels and 2SW’s CCOC tool in my IRA (more conservative) account.
I am using 2SW’s Weekly Going Long chart as my bias for this upcoming week is long: pullback in an uptrend. The potential major PnF Support/Resistance levels are the same if your personal bias is going short. Apply those numbers to 2SW’s Going Short Chart at: http://traders.retracementlevels.com/2009/Janua...
Good luck!
Claudio Lizzola
· 11 months ago
Zach, This time you have exceeded the threshold of good sense and, let me add, of good faith. You state: "Well, if you’re an Apple perma-bull, then you’ve probably convinced yourself that the undeniably strong Apple fundamentals will eventually trump the market. If you believe this, then you truly are a fool." I believe that you are the fool here. You write that not even "eventually" (look in the dictionary what this word means) the strong fundamentals of APPL will take over. How can you say that? What makes you think that in one, two or ten years Apple won't be again on top? You always stated that technical analysis is valid only for the short term. Where did you buy the long term crystal ball?
Zach Bass
· 11 months ago
Claudio, I never said that Technical Analysis was only good for the short term. What I said was that TA was an excellent tool for picking entry and exit points in the short-term. I believe TA is viable for ALL time frames, far more so than fundamentals.
My philosophy for choosing stocks is really 3-fold; Use screens to pair down the list, use fundamentals to further limit that list to strong, well heeled companies, and use TA to determine entry and exit points on positions. My philosophy on reading the market however, is purely technical.
Claudio Lizzola
· 11 months ago
OK Zach, As you said TA is the most valid instrument for ALL (in capital letters) time frames. I cannot argue on that because I do not have any technical knowledge. But TA is based on past events from which it is possible (perhaps) to extrapolate the future. How far in the future? The expression you used "eventually" implies that AAPL will never be where the fundamentals would put it. And that, to me, seems inconsistent on your side especially considering that many times you said that you were bullish on AAPL on the long run. Certainly you were bullish when the stock was up. Now you are bearish, even for an extra long run, because the stock is down. To me that looks like predicting the weather just looking out of the window.
Zach Bass
· 11 months ago
I did not say "the most valid", I said "viable for ALL time frames." TA looks at past patterns to help predict future moves. In much the same way we look at an asteroid, and project its future path based on it's current trajectory.
The problem right now is that this secular bear market we are in is nearly 9 years old, and it's not finished yet. When will it turn? I have no idea. Maybe 2 years, maybe 2 decades. Sure there will be rallies, and we should play them for all they're worth.
Taking a bullish position on Apple can be both relative and absolute. I certainly think that Apple, relative to most other companies out there will be bullish. Now the question is, will it be bullish in absolute terms. What if they continue to make money, but the stock goes down? Then what?
I think in the long term, Apple has a better chance of success than 99 percent of the companies out there. And so from that point of view, I'm bullish. But will I put my money on it right now? No. Because the time frames are different. I want a return within weeks or months. An investment in AAPL may not provide a return much further down the road. And it's not because of Apple, it's because of the economic morass we are currently in.
Claudio Lizzola
· 11 months ago
Now we are in agreement! If you say that AAPL has a better chance of success than 99% of the companies out there it means that "eventually" the people who invest on it won't be "truly fools". Which was exactly my initial contention when you wrote the exact opposite.
Zach Bass
· 11 months ago
You are correct Claudio. I should be clear that they would be near-term fools.
Bryan
· 11 months ago
That's the problem with the MARKET. They LIE!!
Glad I never touched AAPL.
Why was AAPL so weak lately when the market wasn't??? Insiders knew.
Why did Jobs not attend MacWorld - he looks bad.
Why not just be honest instead of lying and hurting 99% of investors.
All Comments
I think your wife or a relative has some puts !?
We have differing views of the broader market. Here is my analysis of $spx:
CURRENT BIAS: GOING LONG
For more information on $SPX I have posted two charts and a full assessment: one with 2Sweeties $SDX Weekly Going Long Retracement Levels and the PnF potential support and resistance areas, both major and hourly. Scroll to the second chart down to view the hourly PnF chart.
Go to: http://www.flickr.com/photos/8258970@N03/
Click on the chart, then click on the zoom magnifer labeled All Sizes above the chart.
How did we do last week on the $SPX with my going short bias information and chart, using 2SW’s Weekly Going Short RL’s, the PnF potential Major Support/Resistance levels and 60 min potential PnF Support/Resistance levels and the SMAs?
If you scaled in (as I did at various levels) at 2SW’s 929 level, or the 60 min PnF levels of 944, 937 or 930 and scaled out between the Major PnF Support/Resistance level of 898 and the 50 SMA of 888.75, then you made some decent cash on the pullback. I personally got out at the 900 area, apparently a little early. So far it has had a selling reversal of 6 boxes on the 60 minute PnF and as I opined last week based on the overbought condition, I thought the selling reversal would exceed 3 boxes, as the average intermediate term selling reversal has averaged 7.75 boxes. On Friday I went long ¼ position in the 892 area and will scale in as we go lower as my bias is currently going long. 2SW’s highest odds is at 879.29 which is also basically at the 60 min PnF level of 878. Of note below is the PnF 60 minute level of 859, just above the short term bottom of 12/22 and the double bottom of 12/29 at 857.07.
Please note that I use + or - .005 on Major PnF Potential Support/Resistance levels and + or - .0015 on the 60 minute. My approach is to consider those levels as being painted with a brush rather than drawn with a fine pencil. 2SW’s advice for patience last week was spot on. Thanks.
I am using only 2SWs highest odds, Major PnF potential Support/Resistance levels and 2SW’s CCOC tool in my IRA (more conservative) account.
I am using 2SW’s Weekly Going Long chart as my bias for this upcoming week is long: pullback in an uptrend. The potential major PnF Support/Resistance levels are the same if your personal bias is going short. Apply those numbers to 2SW’s Going Short Chart at: http://traders.retracementlevels.com/2009/Janua...
Good luck!
This time you have exceeded the threshold of good sense and, let me add, of good faith. You state: "Well, if you’re an Apple perma-bull, then you’ve probably convinced yourself that the undeniably strong Apple fundamentals will eventually trump the market. If you believe this, then you truly are a fool."
I believe that you are the fool here. You write that not even "eventually" (look in the dictionary what this word means) the strong fundamentals of APPL will take over. How can you say that? What makes you think that in one, two or ten years Apple won't be again on top?
You always stated that technical analysis is valid only for the short term. Where did you buy the long term crystal ball?
My philosophy for choosing stocks is really 3-fold; Use screens to pair down the list, use fundamentals to further limit that list to strong, well heeled companies, and use TA to determine entry and exit points on positions. My philosophy on reading the market however, is purely technical.
As you said TA is the most valid instrument for ALL (in capital letters) time frames. I cannot argue on that because I do not have any technical knowledge. But TA is based on past events from which it is possible (perhaps) to extrapolate the future. How far in the future? The expression you used "eventually" implies that AAPL will never be where the fundamentals would put it. And that, to me, seems inconsistent on your side especially considering that many times you said that you were bullish on AAPL on the long run. Certainly you were bullish when the stock was up. Now you are bearish, even for an extra long run, because the stock is down. To me that looks like predicting the weather just looking out of the window.
The problem right now is that this secular bear market we are in is nearly 9 years old, and it's not finished yet. When will it turn? I have no idea. Maybe 2 years, maybe 2 decades. Sure there will be rallies, and we should play them for all they're worth.
Taking a bullish position on Apple can be both relative and absolute. I certainly think that Apple, relative to most other companies out there will be bullish. Now the question is, will it be bullish in absolute terms. What if they continue to make money, but the stock goes down? Then what?
I think in the long term, Apple has a better chance of success than 99 percent of the companies out there. And so from that point of view, I'm bullish. But will I put my money on it right now? No. Because the time frames are different. I want a return within weeks or months. An investment in AAPL may not provide a return much further down the road. And it's not because of Apple, it's because of the economic morass we are currently in.
Which was exactly my initial contention when you wrote the exact opposite.
Glad I never touched AAPL.
Why was AAPL so weak lately when the market wasn't??? Insiders knew.
Why did Jobs not attend MacWorld - he looks bad.
Why not just be honest instead of lying and hurting 99% of investors.
DUMB!! Get well Steve.