Investor in the Wilderness - Latest Comments in Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

Re: Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

zach_bass — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:53:47 -0000

Hey Thom, I wasn't saying this is THE bottom, I'm saying this is a near-term bottom. All the longer term charts point to more pain. We're gonna need some serious upside over the coming weeks to negate your doom and gloom picture. And that's gonna be tough.

Do I think the market will do it? I give it a 50/50 shot. In the mean time, I'll make hay while the suns shining. But as soon as I see those clouds forming overhead, I'm running for the shelter.

Re: Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

zach_bass — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 22:50:40 -0000

I think we're in for a near-term rally, but unless that rally has some legs, and we can clear the 20 day EMA on the indexes with some force, then I think you're right, that we may test the bottom once again, and possibly go lower.

Re: Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

Thom — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 10:57:38 -0000

Don't for a heartbeat think that this was the bottom. We still have to see the correction in the Dollar! We have pumped so much liquidity into the system yet the Dollar has yet to feel it's effect. Right now it's being propped up by massive foreign purchases as hedges against the falling Euro and Pound but that will soon end and it's valuation will plummet. 1% fed rate? Effective .67% overnight? $1+Trillion created out of thin air? Watch the dollar test it's lows of .74 or worse. Oil and other commodities won't reach their highs like earlier this year due to demand destruction but Gold and other currency placeholders will go back up. This has been a time-bomb waiting to happen and we are still in the middle of the explosion.

The only advantage of the dollar drop will be our exports will be more competitive which MIGHT help out the industrial sector but again, demand destruction will mute this effect.

Re: Wilderness Investors Post Crash Outlook

Rajshree — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:59:21 -0000

Hi Zach,

i share the same sentiments as you, i am also a bit uneasy with the rally from last week. All indications are pointing towards a long and deep recession, and that is not just here in the US its worldwide, i have parents and brothers back home in India, and they have multiple retail stores, according to them business has slowed down and a lot of their friends have lost big time in the local stock market.
Remember my note during August, when the price was around 170s, and i noted that the runup from 150 to 180 in a matter of 7 days looked weird with all those upgrades.
i think the market will test the lows again. What do you say ??
Rajshree